The Dubai real estate market continued to perform well in Q2, delivering the second highest volume of transactions on record, despite losing significant working days due to Ramadan and Eid Al Adha, up 37% year on year. Given our robust performance in 2023 and the number of MOUs signed, we expect transactional volumes to remain strong in Q3.
Mortgage demand remains strong, accounting for 41% of secondary transactions in the last quarter. Whilst we can expect some further tightening of interest rates, more positive inflation data from the US suggests we are very near to the peak of this tightening cycle. In the coming months, any confirmation that interest rates have now peaked, and could even be cut in early 2024, will likely provide additional support to demand beyond 2023.
Supply of ready properties remains tight, putting pressure on both sales and leasing prices, but new launches in the first half of the year hit over 30,000 homes and look to be on target for a record year. New inventory from the surge in development post-covid probably won't impact liveable supply to any significant degree until 2025/26, so it is unlikely that tenants will see any relief from rental price rises in the medium term.
As we look towards the rest of the year and beyond, Dubai looks set to continue to be a major benefactor of increased global migration of high net-worth individuals and capital. Strong GDP numbers, population growth, and high investment returns are set to continue, with long-term projections for Dubai's real estate market looking very healthy.
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